So today was roller coaster. I stayed up way too late last night, BTC just didn’t stop. I finally went to bed at 2AM. Got woken up by the kids at eight and checked the charts. Bitcoin still hadn’t stopped moving.
Checked my brokerage account and did a double take. Premarket was up almost exactly the same amount as close yesterday. Another four months salary. Insane.
I got on the work call and about lost it. I think it was a mixture of disbelief and being hungover, but I just didn’t have it in me. I’m so done. I’m taking off for the Christmas to New Year break and I don’t know if I’ll even go back. The issues I have to deal with are so trivial to me these days that I can’t bring myself to summon the mental energy to care about it. First world problems, I suppose.
Last night I was speaking to an Italian person who was replying to some of my tweets about the Bitwise index ($BITW). He’d gotten the 70% return yesterday and was asking me if I thought it would keep going up. I told him about the premium, but apparently they don’t have access to Greyscale in the Canadian markets, and this is more diversified than the BTCQ fund they have over there. When I saw the markets this morning, I got a bit of FOMO and was about to place an market order for BITW, but market orders aren’t supported on OTC tickers, so I didn’t. Good thing I didn’t, cause BITW gave up all of the gains from yesterday.
At one point today BTC was up to $23K, and I was looking at gains equal to half a year’s salary in my IRA, so I took Younger to the park. I finished the day just hanging out with the kids. Mainlining caffeine to get me through the latter part of the day.
One thing that happened last night that I am proud of is that I managed to onboard my old business partner into crypto. I’d messaged him at $20K, and told him what I’d been going through, and he was finally convinced. He opened up a BlockFi account, and is going to start dollar-cost averaging into BTC while earning more on the interest on his USD. I’m so proud of him. I just wish I could have convinced him earlier. He’s got a lot of catching up to do.
Analyzing the BITW premium did give me an idea. Since crypto equities are doing much better than BTC during this market, I thought I might try to calculate the premium for the public companies listed there. There may be enough information publicly available to determine whether they seem valued correctly. If we know the percentage of BTC that was purchased and underlying value at the time of purchase, we can come up with a simple valuation against NAV, as one might do for Grayscale. However, there is additional information available. We know the market cap and the percentage of that market cap in BTC, so we should be able to factor that in as well. By analyzing this information across the market, I may be able to find a deal. I’m working on pulling the data into a spreadsheet tonight and should have some preliminary numbers soon. We’ll see.