Evening notes

Trade plan programming

I’ve been working on my trade planning Python module the last couple days, and already the project is becoming rather complex. I say it’s a trade plan module, but really it’s a capital preservation ‘brake’, if you will.

The basic idea behind the module is like this:

  • Get balance list and filter empty ones.
  • Get last symbol/BTC market price.
  • Calculate total BTC value of all holdings.
  • Get open orders for each market. For each, look for limit orders, and calculate the covered/uncovered amount in BTC.
  • Make sure that no uncovered position accounts for more than two percent of total portfolio value, and that no more than six percent of the portfolio value is uncovered. If they are, do not allow any additional buys.

The last couple days I’ve been slowly working through everything, following a strict TDD methodology to make sure the code is covered, monkeypatching and mocking calls and creating fixtures for the exchange data. Now I’m getting to the point where I don’t know how to proceed, and I’m getting frustrated.

I don’t know where the problem arises in times like these, but I have a feeling it comes from lack of proper planning. I start out with a few procedural calls, then I get to a certain point of complexity where I have to start refactoring classes. Or I don’t know what to do next, and so I cobble come code together without writing a unit test first, and start breaking my flow.

All I can do at times like this is take a break.

Binance token mooning

Binance token has been on a bit of a tear the last few days. Apparently they’ve launched their own EVM compatible Binance Smart Chain, and are hoping to go after the DeFi space. Good luck to them.

I took a look at the validator instructions earlier to price out the cost of being one. It costs 10,000 BNB tokens, or about 300 BTC ($3 million), and about $244/month in AWS costs. That’s still a magnitude cheaper than running a $30 million Serum DEX node, but shows the type of centralization that we’re going to be seeing with these projects. I’ll keep running my puny IDEX node, and work toward my 32 ETH so I can run a Ethereum 2.0 node.

I’ve actually been holding my BNB tokens for two years, and they just actually touched my cost basis after spending so much time underwater. Since I’m actually trying to follow my capital preservation rules, I’ve had to put a tight stop on this latest run. I’ll have to figure out how to account for entry cost in my trade plan program, as now I’m just looking at the percentage of total. This may not work well when things start mooning and I have to recalculate on the run-up.

Jumping into the DeFi deep-end

I’ve decided that the opportunity cost for keeping my funds in BlockFi is just too great, and I’ve initiated some withdrawals. I’ll be putting the entirety of the funds set aside for my kids into the sBTC vault later this week, for a modest 40% APY. I must have stared at the withdrawal screen for five minutes before I could push the submit button. I must have read the wallet address over and over three or four times to make sure they were right.

It’s stressful, being your own bank.

Anyways, I’ve still made no decision on my cold storage funds. I’m risking way more than two percent on this vault, and any more would be irresponsible.

Famous last words.

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