It’s been a long month since our last all-time-high post. I’ve been waking up with anticipation every morning for the last week or so as BTC has wavered around the sixty-thousand range, but I saw the Trading View alert that I had set on my phone recently and was elated. Just yesterday I wrote a post titled On your marks… and it looks like it was right on time.
The current 200-day moving average is $31960, and can be seen as the blue line in the chart below. My “sell” target is 3.6x this number, which is currently about $115,000. The vertical yellow dotted line is my retirement date. I’ve been tracking the 3.6x number based off of the 2017 blow off top, which hit 3.8x of that number. The BTC price, expressed as a multiple of the 200-d MA, is known as the Mayer Multiple, and I’ve written about it numerous times in these pages. It’s basically my strategy to prevent me from making the same mistake I made in 2017-18, which was not taking profits. Since this is a moving target, I’m not sure whether we’ll ever hit it. We would have to have a very fast climb to some 2x our current price, maybe in a week, two at most. And I’m skeptical that we’ll see something like that this cycle. Maybe I’m losing hope, or maybe I’ve just forgotten how crazy 2017 was.
Already there’s been talk about this being a cycle top. There’s been some fuss about the Pi cycle indicator, but most on-chain metrics aren’t showing any indication of a top. GlassNode and TheBlock are two such subscription services that are going to be critical to watch in the coming weeks and months. They are both good sources of on-chain graphs, charts, and research. I just have to figure out which one to go with first.
I’ve got about 45 days left until my retirement date. I’ve told Missus that I’d pay off the mortgage, but I’m really hoping I can convince her otherwise. While I can technically afford it, the opportunity cost at this point in the cycle is just too great. We’ll see how the next few weeks play out, but I’m hoping a more gradual payoff is in order instead of a large lump sum. I might reconsider this if we do break $100,000 by June, which I think is possible, but my current feeling is that we’ll need at least one more pullback before we breach it well. I’m guessing somewhere between $86,000-94,000.
Cryptoequities are looking good this morning, most are already up between 5-8% in premarket: CAN, RIOT, BTBT, MARA, NCTY, GBTC and Voyager are leading. I’m going to be trimming these considerably in the coming weeks as I continue moving funds to my checkbook IRA, but I have some other positions that I’m going to trim first. Even winners like Paypal, Apple and Netflix are losers when compared to crypto plays, and while I’ve been holding these for years, it’s time to let them go.