Things are nuts right now.
I’ve spent most of my time thinking about PRIA and how to game it. I there’s a way to compute the minimum future airdrop payout. By comparing that to the current price and gas costs of a transaction, one can sell the future payout for ETH, burn that eth for gas on a transfer, and will be guaranteed at least the same amount of PRIA back in a future airdrop, two hundred blocks later. That’s the plan at least.
What I do know is I woke up this morning to find a huge run up on price. Gas costs are still high enough that it means flooding the airdrop queue will cost more than the ultimate payout, but if one assumes that PRIAs deflationary price action will continue, then one may be willing to risk more.
We’re also talking profitability from a minimum future payout. One can assume that the actual future payout will be higher than the minimum, since any transaction with a fee larger than the airdrop payout will increase the airdrop balance, not drain it.
I have also determined that flooding the entire airdrop queue in one transaction is likely impossible, due to gas costs, and I believe the upper bound is around 20 at a time. Still, I should be possible to sell PRIA on Uniswap, and self transfer enough to qualify for a spot on the queue in one transaction. One could cover gas costs, and insure that you get back at least as much as the total costs, both the gas fees and any transfer funds.
This process would theoretically allow someone to accumulate PRIA with zero capital risk. They would basically be arbitraging the costs now for the expected payout on the next airdrop cycle.
On top of all this, it looks like $BTC has crossed a critical threshold. I had to zoom out on the weekly to get a bit of perspective on this.
Not only have we broached the critical rsistance line at $12,060, but we’re also about to break through a multi-year uptrend support that was only breached by the COVID-dump. We saw a little bit of action above this line a few months ago. And yes, I know these kinds of lines on a log scale aren’t sustainable, but it’s clear to me that we are in a bull market.
The orange line at the top is a moving profit-taking target based on the Mayer Multiple, the factor of price to the 200-day moving average. I calculated the 2017 peak to be around 2.8 times, so when we get to that price level, I plan to take some profits.
I had that feeling this morning that things were happening. Recently, I saw a Tweet that said if you feel like bragging, then it’s time to sell.
I’m starting to feel that way right now.