Unpacking PRIA

Yesterday I was a bit of a mess, as I made the mistake of watching the presidential debate the night before and stayed up way too late. I’ve been doing very badly with my habits lately. I spent most of the day in a funk.

After I woke up, the first thing i did was checked the price of $PRIA. It was up another $20, and peaked at $83 early before settling back down. It’s quite the run over the last few days and has left me in a bit of an awkward position, of being in a winning position and indecisive about what to do next.

There was a flurry of activity in the Telegram group, and a load of drama after someone decided to copy and paste the PRIA token contract code into another token. They called it a fork, but they didn’t know what they were doing. For one, they didn’t change the date that allowed one to burn the owner functions, like setting the airdrop address and exempting the Uniswap pools from the inactivity burn. Dr. Mantis, the creator of PRIA, saw this and pulled the killswitch, and banned a bunch of people from the Telegram group as a result.

Despite my inability to focus yesterday, I did manage to get some work for Zombie, LLC, and I did continue coding on my PRIA bot. At this point I’m not sure that my strategy will ever be profitable, since others seem to be running some sort of similar strategy. I’m having some trouble with dependencies in my Node project, and am running into some issues with the fact that I seem to have wound up with both web3 and ethers, and am having some bugs due to there being several big number packages in the modules, one of which seems to be an older version. I thought that I would be able to simulate the PRIA contract code in Javascript in order to get an accurate payout of the airdrop as it cycles to the next two hundred slots, but achieving precision is proving difficult.

My involvement with the project is also making me somewhat uncomfortable. I got involved cause I wanted to understand the contract code, and I seem to have put myself the position of being a community leader. I’ve been messaging with the creator constantly with questions about how things work, and have been answering questions in the group to explain how things work. I have been rewarded eight times over what I initially put in as a test.

As a result I’m basically looking at a month’s salary for the last week’s efforts. And the truth is, I am still very skeptical about this project. It’s about a tenth of the way through this turn one burn cycle, and despite the flurry of activity, I’m still not convinced it has enough gas to get there and back, let alone all the way through one of these “ultracycles”. Some of the moonboy chatter that I’m seeing is not really anything I want to be associated with, and I feel like I’m in a very, very tough spot.

When it comes down to it, PRIA is a game, and it’s an insanely complicated one. People are throwing numbers out like $100 or $1000 or higher, and one of the problems I have is that there are many, many fresh faces that are coming in here trying to get on board with this. I’m gauging my assessment based on the number of Twitter followers that I see shilling.

I don’t want to be a part of it, but I already am a part of it, so what do I do about that?

Two nights ago, during the debate, I was in telegram chat trying to make some of these concerns known, trying to advise caution. At one point I mentioned that the creator “erred” by not making the contract upgradable, and some people got really panicky. “Why admin FUD,” or “why mod FUD,” went up. A couple people, more experienced in the space I guess, DMed me to say they understood or agreed with me. My final word on the matter was that the project was going to survive or not in spite of what I had to say on the matter.

So I was a bit shocked when I woke up to see another twenty dollar pump.

I don’t want to do price projections, but I may as well. I’m paying attention to the ETH pair. We’ll see what it does here on the short term.

Chart via DexTools

The uptrend line hits 1:1 with ETH near the end of the month, which seems impossible, granted. If there’s a lot of volume that drives the supply down fast enough, it may drive the price upward, but I don’t think the trend is going to hold. This level does seem to be pretty good support, we’ll see if it holds or if we trend sideways for a while. The market cap has dropped from $5.2 million down to $4.2, and with the supply floor on this turn set to 10,000 PRIA, does that mean that we could see $400-500 PRIA?

I’m not sure, but for now, I’m content to let my bags sit for a few more days and see what happens. This turn might take a while, and we’ll see how things go for now.

Finally, a quick look at the weekly $BTC chart, just for a bit of perspective. We’ve got another day and a half to close this last candle, which could be the highest weekly close since November 27, 2017.